Inflation in the USA

Demo-Konto eröffnen
Die Transaktionen in FOREX haben einen hohen Risikofaktor und die Verluste können nicht Ihre Investitionen überschreiten

Analyse der Finanz- und Warenmärkte

Market Watch review. 17/05/2021

In today's release, we’ll cover the following topics:

  • US inflation returns above 4%.
  • US Federal Reserve key interest rate.
  • Weakening of commodity currencies.
  • The Canadian dollar has updated its highs since 2015.
  • Oil market prospects.

Since February of this year, we have been hearing from various representatives of the Federal Reserve, including the head of the Federal Reserve, that the rise in inflation is only a temporary phenomenon. Thus, all of them are trying to calm the markets from the development of corrective declines, which may develop into an uncontrolled collapse. To be fair, I will note that until the middle of this week they managed to do this. Even despite the statements of the Minister of Finance about the need to raise rates. What has changed?

On Wednesday, during the US trading session, an inflation report was published. The actual data was significantly higher than the already optimistic forecast, reaching a record high since September 2008. Unexpectedly strong growth in the consumer price index increased the pressure on the main US stock indices, which began to decline from the beginning of the week. After all, a significant increase in the rate of inflation growth is perceived by many as confirmation of the Fed's readiness to raise the rate.

Nevertheless, the probability of a change in the main interest rate at the next meeting of the regulator, which will be held on June 16, is very low. The tool for monitoring the US Federal Reserve rate even takes into account the almost 7% probability of its reduction. Therefore, only the statements of the representatives of the Federal Reserve about their readiness to tighten monetary policy, including raising rates, can have a longer-term effect and, as a result, strengthen the US dollar. At the moment, this scenario looks unlikely.

Shifting to the foreign exchange market, I will pay attention to the significant weakening of commodity currencies in a pair with the US dollar. So the AUD/USD currency pair fell by more than 200 points, while the losses of the NZD/USD currency pair exceeded 160 points. European currencies are no exception, although their losses are much more modest.

Analysts of the largest investment banks note the risk of overheating of the US economy, which in turn increases the likelihood of an increase in interest rates and, as a result, further strengthening of the US currency.

I will also pay attention to the USD/CAD currency pair, where the quotes have fallen to the lowest values since 2015. At the same time, we do not observe a steady increase in oil prices. There are also all the prerequisites for the strengthening of the US dollar in the medium term. As a result, the risk of developing a corrective growth of this currency pair increases. The nearest technical level of resistance and as a result the target for buyers is the mark of 1.2300.

At the end of today's review, we will talk about the future of the oil market. The International Energy Agency has lowered its forecast for changes in oil demand in 2021, thereby reducing the likelihood of further price growth. In addition, OPEC is still considering the possibility of further increasing the volume of black gold production, which is also negative for oil prices. Given all this there is a risk of the formation of another sideways movement in the long term.

Closely monitor the news background and be prepared for all the surprises of the market.

Das auf dieser Seite veröffentlichte Material wird von den FIBO Group Unternehmen hergestellt, und soll nicht als die Anlageberatung im Sinne der Richtlinie 2004/39/EC berücksichtigt werden. Weiterhin ist es nicht in Übereinstimmung mit den gesetzlichen Anforderungen vorbereitet worden, welche auf die Unabhängigkeit von Finanzanalysen gefördert sind, und auch nicht auf die Behandlung der Verbreitung von der Anlageforschung zu einem Verbot unterworfen sind.

Fibo Markets

FIBO Markets Ltd. (ex. FIBO Group Holdings Ltd.) ist von CySEC (Lizenznr. 118/10) autorisiert und reguliert

FIBO Markets Ltd. (ex. FIBO Group Holdings Ltd.) arbeitet in Übereinstimmung mit der Richtlinie über Märkte für Finanzinstrumente (MiFID) der Europäischen Union

DIE DIENSTLEISTUNGEN DES UNTERNEHMENS SIND FÜR DIE BEWOHNER VON KANADA, NORDKOREA, IRAN, IRAK, ISRAEL, AUSTRALIEN, BELGIEN, JAPAN UND DEN USA LEIDER NICHT VERFÜGBAR

29 Agias Zonis, 1st Floor, 3027, Limassol, Cyprus

© 1998—2023 FIBO Markets Ltd. (ex. FIBO Group Holdings Ltd.)

WICHTIG: Bitte beachten Sie, dass unsere Dienstleistungen nur für professionelle Kunden verfügbar sind. CFD sind komplexe Instrumente und gehen wegen der Hebelwirkung mit dem hohen Risiko einher, schnell Geld zu verlieren. Sie sollten überlegen, ob Sie verstehen, wie CFD funktionieren, und ob Sie es sich leisten können, das hohe Risiko einzugehen, Ihr Geld zu verlieren.

Please note that our services are provided only to the residents of the following counties (in alphabetical order): Austria, Bulgaria, British Virgin Islands, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Oman, People's Republic of China, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia,Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates.

Please feel free to contact out Support in order to get further assistance.